The Complex Dynamics Between Pakistan and Afghanistan
The relationship between Pakistan and Afghanistan has long been marked by a mix of historical grievances, territorial disputes, and geopolitical maneuvering. Recently, the situation has taken a new turn as Afghanistan has launched attacks on Pakistan at a time when its foreign minister is visiting India. This timing raises questions about whether these actions are mere coincidences or part of a broader strategy.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stated that “the war is not over; the war continues.” However, the Pakistan-India border remains relatively calm. This leads to the question: where exactly is this war being waged? Could it be that the conflict is now being orchestrated from across the Durand Line, the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan?
Historical Context and Regional Tensions
Afghanistan, as a fellow Islamic nation, has historically maintained a complex relationship with Pakistan. While Pakistan has always extended goodwill towards Afghanistan, the reality is that Afghanistan has repeatedly undermined Pakistan’s security. Historically, Afghanistan has claimed Pakistani territory, while Pakistan has never laid claim to Afghan land. Notably, Afghanistan even voted against Pakistan’s admission to the United Nations, although it later withdrew this opposition.
During Pakistan’s early years, Afghan leadership dreamed of extending their borders beyond Peshawar. Under the guise of strategic depth, Afghan-backed nationalist movements first refused to participate in Pakistan’s plebiscite, demanding an independent Pashtunistan. After Pakistan emerged, they insisted that any Pakistani legislative participation be contingent upon a future right to secede.
The Role of Afghan Leadership in Instability
Once Pakistan became a reality, Afghan Prime Minister Hashim Khan oversaw the creation of Pashtun militant groups to incite unrest and prepare the Afghan army for attacks. Secret meetings planning against Pakistan’s sovereignty involved Afghan Chief of Staff Sardar Daud, Defense Minister Sardar Shah Mahmood, and even a Pakistani political figure. Afghan King Zahir Shah publicly spoke against Pakistan, while Afghan envoys in India openly predicted tribal uprisings and the formation of an independent government within Pakistan.
Daud Khan institutionalized Pakistan-focused subversion by creating a ministry dedicated to inciting rebellion. Afghan attacks on Pakistani embassies replaced national flags with Pashtunistan banners. Bacha Khan himself acknowledged this exploitation in a March 1980 “India Today” interview: “Afghan governments used the Pashtunistan issue for their political goals. Our people suffered greatly. Daud stopped discussing Pashtunistan, and Noor Tarakai only raised it to harm Pakistan.”
Exploitation of Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
This hostility was not limited to Pashtun regions. Afghanistan also consistently supported insurgents in Balochistan. As Rajiv Sharma documents, even in 1949, Daud Khan’s government provided full support to Pakistan-opposing elements. During the 1970 insurgency in Kabul, sixty camps trained anti-Pakistan actors. Subsequent leaders, including Noor Mohammad Taraki, and later Hamid Karzai, continued this support, with Karzai himself publicly acknowledging Pakistan-opposing activities.
Strategic Concerns for Pakistan
Pakistan’s concerns are strategic and immediate. Geographically, Pakistan is stretched along a narrow rectangle: India lies to the east along 2,912 kilometers of border, Afghanistan to the west along 2,640 kilometers. If hostility arises simultaneously from both neighbors, Pakistan risks becoming trapped in a “strategic sandwich,” facing adversaries on both east and west. This scenario underscores why Pakistan has always sought a friendly Afghanistan, one free from Indian influence. A Pakistan-friendly Afghan government is not merely desirable—it is essential for regional stability.
Current Developments and Regional Implications
Yet current developments suggest the opposite. India, historically no friend of Pakistan, continues to manipulate Afghanistan to destabilize its western neighbor. The attacks coinciding with the Afghan foreign minister’s India visit are no coincidence. They reflect a long-term strategy where Afghanistan serves as a proxy in India’s regional designs against Pakistan. In such circumstances, Pakistan cannot rely on goodwill alone; vigilance, strategic foresight, and regional partnerships are crucial.
The Need for Mutual Cooperation
Pakistan and Afghanistan, as neighboring Islamic nations, share more than borders—they share the imperative of mutual security. Past and present history shows that India has consistently sought to exploit Afghan-Pakistan dynamics to its advantage. To counter this, both nations must resist external manipulation and prioritize bilateral cooperation. Friendship, trust, and strategic alignment are not luxuries, they are a necessity for survival in a region where hostile forces continue to exploit historical vulnerabilities.
Looking Ahead
The question is clear: will Afghanistan move forward having learned from its own history, or are the lessons of the past meant only for others? Pakistan cannot afford to be caught between two adversaries. A stable, independent, and Pakistan-friendly Afghanistan is not merely a diplomatic preference, it is a matter of survival.
At the same time, Afghanistan must recognize and uphold its own responsibilities, for a single hand cannot create a clap.