The 2025 Nobel Economics Prize: A Look at Potential Contenders
The 2025 Nobel economics prize will be announced on Monday, marking the conclusion of the year’s Nobel award season. Experts believe this year’s prize may recognize groundbreaking research in artificial intelligence or wealth inequality, two areas that have gained significant attention in recent years.
The announcement is scheduled for 11:45 am (0945 GMT). Last year, the prize was awarded to Turkish-American Daron Acemoglu and British-Americans Simon Johnson and James Robinson for their work on national wealth inequality. However, predicting the winners is not an exact science, as the nomination and selection process remains confidential.
Despite the secrecy, analysts and experts have developed strategies to identify potential candidates. Micael Dahlen, a professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, emphasizes the importance of examining previous years’ disciplines. “Information economics is a strong contender,” he told AFP, noting that the field was highlighted in the 2016 prize. With the rise of artificial intelligence, the field has become increasingly relevant.
Dahlen suggests that American economist Erik Brynjolfsson could be a leading candidate. He also mentions Germany’s Monika Schnitzer, a notable figure in international economics.
Public Perception and Representation
Public perception plays a role in how decisions are made. Women have been underrepresented among Nobel economics laureates. Of the 96 recipients since 1969, only three have been women. Magnus Henrekson of the Research Institute of Industrial Economics in Stockholm noted that no one is insensitive to how decisions are perceived.
This year’s Nobel season has already seen two women honored: American Mary Brunkow, who co-won the medicine prize, and Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who received the Nobel Peace Prize. However, the economics prize remains the only one not part of Alfred Nobel’s original five, created in 1968 through a donation from the Swedish central bank. Some critics refer to it as “a false Nobel.”
Dahlen believes that if Nobel had written his will today, economics would likely be included due to its importance in understanding global events and improving societies.
Inequality and AI: Key Themes
The 2025 edition might honor economists working on wealth inequalities. Researchers at the University of Gothenburg suggest French-American Emmanuel Saez and France’s Thomas Piketty as possible candidates. Their work on international comparisons and open databases has contributed to more evidence-based discussions on reducing inequality without harming economic growth.
French economist Gabriel Zucman could also be a contender, though his recent proposal to tax the ultra-rich might make the academy hesitant. Henrekson speculated that this could deter the committee from making a controversial choice.
Zucman won the John Bates Clark Medal in 2023, an award often seen as a precursor to the Nobel. Seventeen percent of its recipients have later won the Nobel.
Other names mentioned include Belgian Marianne Bertrand and American Sendhil Mullainathan, whose research on racial discrimination and labor economics influenced by psychology and culture has garnered attention. Swiss economist Ernst Fehr, specializing in behavioral and neuroeconomics, has also been floated as a potential candidate.
Other Potential Candidates
Analysts have pointed to Japan’s Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Britain’s John Moore for their work on how small shocks can impact economic cycles. These researchers have contributed significantly to understanding macroeconomic fluctuations.
The Nobel economics prize includes a diploma, a gold medal, and a $1.2 million cheque. As the world watches the announcement, the focus remains on the contributions of these economists to shaping our understanding of complex global issues.