The United States, under President Trump’s administration, has intensified its efforts to pressure Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and his regime. This escalated pressure includes significant actions such as the seizure of a large oil tanker en route to Cuba and the imposition of further sanctions targeting Maduro’s leadership.
The recent confiscation of the oil tanker, identified as the Skipper, represents a notable escalation in the Trump administration’s campaign against Maduro. U.S. officials have consistently characterized Maduro as an “illegitimate leader” and have accused his government of operating as a drug-trafficking cartel.
President Trump has not shied away from more assertive measures. He has authorized lethal strikes against vessels suspected of smuggling drugs in the Caribbean, near Venezuelan waters. These actions, coupled with public statements indicating that Maduro’s tenure is “numbered,” underscore a significant increase in U.S. military presence and operational tempo within the U.S. Southern Command (Southcom) region.
When questioned about the multifaceted campaign against Venezuela, President Trump articulated a rationale that extends beyond a single issue. He indicated that the actions are driven by a combination of factors, including concerns about migration and the illicit drug trade, as well as preventing Venezuelan migrants from entering the U.S. illegally.
“Well, it’s about a lot of things,” the president told reporters at the White House. “But one of the things it’s about is the fact that they’ve allowed millions of people to come into our country from their prisons, from gangs, from drug dealers and from mental institutions, probably proportionately more than anybody else.”
Key Drivers of the U.S. Campaign Against Venezuela
The Trump administration’s sustained pressure on the Maduro regime appears to be driven by several interconnected factors. These can be broadly categorized as follows:
Migration Concerns:
President Trump has frequently cited the influx of migrants as a primary justification for his administration’s actions against Venezuela. He has asserted that Venezuela has “dumped hundreds of thousands of people into our country from prisons.”
Venezuela remains a significant source of global migration. While the majority of Venezuelan migrants, exceeding 80 percent, reside in Latin America and the Caribbean, the United States has also seen a substantial increase in Venezuelan immigrants. According to the Migration Policy Institute, there were approximately 770,000 Venezuelan immigrants in the U.S. as of 2023, constituting less than 2 percent of the total U.S. immigrant population. The number of Venezuelan migrants in the U.S. has seen a dramatic rise from about 33,000 in 1980 to 770,000 in 2023.
A significant development impacting Venezuelan migrants in the U.S. was the Supreme Court’s early October ruling, which led to more than a quarter million Venezuelans losing Temporary Protected Status (TPS). This program, a Biden-era initiative, had shielded Venezuelan nationals from deportation until October of the following year, but its expiration left many in a precarious immigration status.Combating Illicit Drug Trafficking:
The administration has accused the Maduro regime of facilitating the flow of illegal narcotics into the United States. This accusation serves as a key justification for the ongoing lethal military operations targeting suspected drug-smuggling vessels off the coast of Venezuela.
Since the commencement of this military campaign in early September, the U.S. military has reportedly conducted at least 22 strikes against vessels believed to be involved in drug smuggling in both the Caribbean and the eastern Pacific. These operations have reportedly resulted in the deaths of at least 87 individuals identified as suspected “narco-terrorists.”
The authorization of these boat strikes has become a point of contention for Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, particularly after survivors of a September strike were killed. Critics, including many Democrats, have labeled these actions as war crimes. Secretary Hegseth has acknowledged authorizing the strikes but has denied giving specific orders for the killing of survivors.
While the administration has linked individuals on the targeted vessels to drug cartels and argues that each destroyed vessel prevents the entry of substantial quantities of drugs, lawmakers briefed on the strikes have indicated that the vessels in the Caribbean were believed to be carrying cocaine, not fentanyl, which is considered more deadly. Colombia remains the primary producer and exporter of cocaine in Latin America.
President Trump has claimed that maritime illegal drug trafficking in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific has seen a significant decline since the initiation of his administration’s boat strikes. “If you look at drug traffic, drug traffic by sea is down 92 percent,” the president stated. “And nobody can figure out who the eight is, because I have no idea. Anybody getting involved in that right now is not doing well. And we’ll start that on land too. It’s gonna be starting on land pretty soon.”
As part of its broader strategy, the U.S. government has designated the organization known as “Cartel de los Soles” as a foreign terrorist organization, with President Maduro accused of being its leader.Control Over Oil and Mineral Resources:
Venezuela possesses substantial oil and gas reserves, with oil accounting for nearly 90 percent of the country’s export earnings. This economic reliance has led the Maduro regime to argue that U.S. actions are strategically aimed at gaining access to the nation’s energy resources.
The oil tanker seized earlier this week, the Skipper, was previously sanctioned by the U.S. government in 2022 and was reportedly sailing under a false flag, masquerading as a vessel from Guyana. It is believed to have been carrying over 1 million barrels of oil.
Experts have indicated that continued seizure of Venezuela’s oil tankers could severely hamper the nation’s ability to procure essential goods, including weapons and food, and maintain basic government services.
While a complete oil blockade is considered unlikely due to U.S. reliance on Venezuelan oil imports and potential international opposition, analysts suggest that the U.S. could achieve a similar effect by intercepting more tankers. Francisco R. Rodríguez, a senior research fellow at the Center for Economic and Policy Research, noted that such actions could lead to a “complete collapse in Venezuelan oil exports if the US does this, because it would be equivalent to imposing a de facto naval blockade of Venezuela.”Goal of Ousting Nicolás Maduro:
President Trump and other high-ranking administration officials have publicly stated that Maduro’s leadership is nearing its end, and the president has not ruled out the possibility of direct military intervention in Venezuela.
In recent weeks, the U.S. has significantly bolstered its military presence in the Southcom operational area. This deployment includes advanced assets such as F-35 fighter jets, warships, Marines, spy planes, at least one submarine, and the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier.
President Trump has repeatedly issued warnings about potential strikes within Venezuela, suggesting they could occur “soon.” However, he has also indicated that he has not entirely closed the door on negotiations with Maduro, with whom he has reportedly spoken recently.
Some analysts interpret President Trump’s actions as a concerted effort towards regime change in Venezuela. However, Secretary of State Rubio has denied this assertion. Rubio, known for his strong stance against socialist regimes and his Cuban heritage, views Maduro’s potential removal as a significant blow to Cuba’s leadership, with whom Maduro maintains close ties. A report from The New York Times suggested that the seized vessel, the Skipper, was part of Venezuela’s efforts to provide financial support to Cuba.
Rubio, who also serves as Trump’s national security advisor, has stated that the U.S. objective in the region is not regime change in Venezuela. Nevertheless, he has expressed skepticism about the possibility of striking a deal with Maduro that he would honor. “At the end of the day with Maduro — and his problem basically is that this is a guy, if you wanted to make a deal with him, I don’t know how you’d do,” Rubio commented during a recent appearance on Fox News. “He’s broken every deal he’s ever made.”