Global Malaria Burden: Nigeria Leads in Cases and Deaths Amidst Worsening Trends
A comprehensive global analysis of malaria data for 2024 reveals a concerning resurgence of the disease, with Nigeria bearing the brunt of both cases and fatalities worldwide. The latest findings indicate that Nigeria recorded an estimated 68,466,000 malaria cases in 2024, placing it at the forefront of the global malaria epidemic. This figure represents a significant portion of the estimated 282 million malaria cases documented across 80 endemic countries, highlighting a 58 per cent year-on-year increase in the global caseload.
The report underscores that sub-Saharan African nations continue to be the epicentre of malaria transmission. This persistent challenge is exacerbated by a confluence of factors, including extreme climate events, ongoing conflicts, rapid population growth, and disruptions to vital healthcare services. These compounding issues have collectively contributed to the worsening malaria trend in recent years.
Key Statistics and Regional Impact
The analysis of 2024 data paints a stark picture of the global malaria landscape:
- Global Cases: An estimated 282 million cases were reported across 80 endemic countries.
- Nigeria’s Case Share: Nigeria accounted for approximately 24.3 per cent of all malaria cases globally.
- Global Deaths: An estimated 610,000 malaria deaths were recorded worldwide.
- Nigeria’s Death Share: Nigeria was responsible for an alarming 30.3 per cent of all global malaria deaths, translating to roughly 184,800 fatalities in 2024. This positions Nigeria as having the highest malaria mortality burden globally.
The report further identifies the countries contributing most significantly to the global malaria burden:
- Top Five Countries for Cases (2024):
- Nigeria (24.3 per cent)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo (12.5 per cent)
- Uganda (4.7 per cent)
- Ethiopia (4.4 per cent)
- Mozambique (3.6 per cent)
These five nations collectively accounted for nearly half of all malaria cases worldwide.
Trends in Malaria Incidence
Historically, there was a notable decline in malaria case incidence. Between 2000 and 2015, the incidence fell by 25.6 per cent, from 79.4 to 59.0 cases per 1,000 population at risk. However, the trend reversed between 2015 and 2024, with an increase of 8.5 per cent. In 2024, the case incidence stood at 64.0 per 1,000 population at risk, marking a 2 per cent rise from the 62.7 per 1,000 population at risk recorded in 2023.
The report highlights specific countries that experienced significant year-on-year increases in incidence between 2023 and 2024:
- Rwanda (43.8 per cent)
- Yemen (34.3 per cent)
- Madagascar (27.7 per cent)
- Ethiopia (26.7 per cent)
Detailed Case Numbers by Country
The sheer scale of the malaria epidemic is further illustrated by the estimated number of cases reported by various countries in 2024:
- Nigeria: 68,466,000 cases
- Democratic Republic of the Congo: Approximately 35,175,000 cases
- Uganda: Roughly 13,216,000 cases
- Ethiopia: 12,437,000 cases
- Mozambique: 10,220,000 cases
- Angola: 9,809,000 cases
- United Republic of Tanzania: 9,374,000 cases
- Côte d’Ivoire: 8,557,000 cases
- Mali: 8,475,000 cases
- Burkina Faso: 8,324,000 cases
- Niger: 8,249,000 cases
- Madagascar: 8,165,000 cases
- Cameroon: 7,586,000 cases
- Ghana: 6,740,000 cases
- Malawi: 6,378,000 cases
- Zambia: 5,380,000 cases
- Benin: 5,123,000 cases
- Sudan: 4,957,000 cases
- Burundi: 4,424,000 cases
- Guinea: 4,221,000 cases
- Kenya: 4,186,000 cases
- Chad: 4,139,000 cases
Further regional data includes:
- South Sudan: 3,035,000 cases
- Pakistan: 3,155,000 cases
- Sierra Leone: 2,443,000 cases
- Togo: 2,372,000 cases
- Yemen: 1,363,000 cases
- Rwanda: 1,100,000 cases
- Liberia: 967,000 cases
- Somalia: 1,013,000 cases
- Congo: 1,400,000 cases
- Papua New Guinea: 1,605,000 cases
- Central African Republic: 1,833,000 cases
- India: 2,007,000 cases
Other countries with notable case numbers include:
- Afghanistan: Approximately 585,000 cases
- Zimbabwe: 149,000 cases
- Gabon: 475,000 cases
- Equatorial Guinea: 431,000 cases
- Guinea-Bissau: 242,000 cases
- The Gambia: 208,000 cases
- Eritrea: 362,000 cases
- Mauritania: 360,000 cases
- Colombia: 178,000 cases
- Venezuela: 111,000 cases
- Peru: 44,000 cases
- Guyana: 32,000 cases
- Djibouti: 40,000 cases
- Brazil: 162,000 cases
- Solomon Islands: 182,000 cases
- Haiti: 91,000 cases
In Asia and the Pacific:
- Indonesia: Around 631,000 cases
- Myanmar: 702,000 cases
- Philippines: 24,000 cases
- Bangladesh: 16,000 cases
- Nepal: 37 cases
- Thailand: 7,900 cases
- Cambodia: 320 cases
- Lao People’s Democratic Republic: 540 cases
- Republic of Korea: Approximately 640 cases
- Vanuatu: 4,000 cases
- Democratic People’s Republic of Korea: 5,200 cases
In the Americas:
- French Guiana: 250 cases
- Ecuador: 380 cases
- Mexico: 270 cases
- Dominican Republic: 1,200 cases
- Costa Rica: 240 cases
- Panama: 11,000 cases
- Honduras: 2,300 cases
- Guatemala: 2,900 cases
- Nicaragua: 6,400 cases
- Bolivia (Plurinational State of): 22,000 cases
In the Eastern Mediterranean region:
- Iran (Islamic Republic of): An estimated 2,000 cases
- Pakistan: 3,155,000 cases
- Afghanistan: 585,000 cases
- Yemen: 1,363,000 cases
Small island nations reported:
- Cabo Verde: 19 cases
- Sao Tome and Principe: 7,100 cases
- Comoros: 54,000 cases
Global Mortality Trends and Contributing Factors
The global malaria death toll in 2024 reached an estimated 610,000, an increase of 12,000 deaths compared to 2023. This rise is particularly concerning, as it reverses progress made in previous decades.
- Countries Driving Year-on-Year Death Increase:
- Madagascar (+4,900 deaths)
- Ethiopia (+3,800 deaths)
- Yemen (+932 deaths)
These three nations accounted for 85 per cent of the increase in malaria deaths globally.
The report highlights a shift in mortality trends:
- 2000-2015: Malaria deaths declined by 33.1 per cent, from 864,000 to 578,000.
- 2015-2024: Deaths increased by 5.5 per cent, with over a third of this rise occurring between 2023 and 2024.
The countries with the highest proportion of global malaria deaths in 2024 were:
- Top Four Countries for Deaths (2024):
- Nigeria (30.3 per cent)
- Democratic Republic of the Congo (11.1 per cent)
- Niger (5.8 per cent)
- United Republic of Tanzania (4.3 per cent)
These four countries collectively accounted for just over half of all malaria deaths worldwide.
A particularly tragic statistic is Nigeria’s disproportionate burden of malaria deaths among young children. The country was responsible for 38.6 per cent of global malaria deaths in children under five years old.
While the malaria mortality rate has seen a significant decline since 2000, the recent increase in the estimated number of deaths is primarily attributed to population growth. The mortality rate, which nearly halved between 2000 and 2015 (from 28.6 to 14.9 per 100,000 population at risk), has seen a slower decline since 2015, decreasing by only 7.4 per cent over the past nine years. In 2024, the mortality rate remained unchanged from 2023 at 13.8 per 100,000 population at risk. This stagnation, coupled with rising case numbers, signals a critical juncture in the fight against malaria.