The Green Bay Packers have captured the top spot in their division with a recent victory in Detroit, overtaking Chicago. However, their next challenge promises to be significantly tougher as they prepare to face the Denver Broncos this Sunday. The Packers, currently at 9-3-1, will travel to Denver to play a Broncos team that boasts an impressive 11-2 record, including a formidable 11-game home winning streak and a 10-game overall winning streak. This highly anticipated matchup could very well serve as a preview of a Super Bowl clash. Here are three key reasons why the Packers are poised to continue their winning streak and emerge victorious against the Broncos.
Jordan Love’s Ascendance vs. Bo Nix’s Potential
A significant factor in this game will be the quarterback matchup between Green Bay’s Jordan Love and Denver’s Bo Nix. In their previous encounter in 2023, the Packers fell to the Broncos 19-17. During that game, Love completed 21 of 31 passes for 180 yards, with two touchdowns and one interception. The Packers struggled offensively in the first half, and while they rallied in the second, a crucial interception by Love ultimately sealed their fate.
However, the quarterback who will take the field on Sunday is a vastly improved version of the one who played in Denver last year. Jordan Love has ascended to fourth in the league with a passer rating of 105.4. The same quarterback who was once criticized for inaccuracy and mistakes now ranks ninth in completion percentage at 67.1%. His touchdown-to-interception ratio is also exceptional, with 22 touchdowns against just four interceptions, trailing only Matthew Stafford among starting quarterbacks in that category.
The Broncos’ defense has been a dominant force against opposing quarterbacks this season, ranking fifth in opponent passer rating overall and fourth at home. They also lead the league in sacks and are third in passes defensed. Despite this, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph acknowledges the significant challenge Love presents.
“I think he has [improved] in every part of his game, in my opinion,” Joseph stated to reporters. “His accuracy, he is really good vs. pressure and nonpressure. This young quarterback, when you watch him operate, especially on third downs as far as protections, he’s putting them in the right protections and the ball is going to the right spots. During motions and shifts, he is in total control. When you watch the TV copies and you hear the verbiage, it’s through him. Every game they’ve played this year, he is right on. He is taking care of the ball and he has great skill.”
Joseph further elaborated, “It’s going to be a challenge. He is playing at a high level. He’s accurate, he’s making big plays and he’s being aggressive, which is scary for a defense. His timing on big plays has killed defenses. It’s going to be a challenge for us to get him stopped.”
On the other side, the Broncos will feature second-year quarterback Bo Nix. Among 27 qualifying quarterbacks, Nix ranks 23rd with an 86.4 passer rating, a notable 19 points behind Love. He also sits at 20th in completion percentage and 25th in yards per attempt, with 19 touchdowns and nine interceptions to his name. Packers safety Xavier McKinney has drawn comparisons between Nix and Bears quarterback Caleb Williams due to Nix’s ability to make plays while on the move.
During a joint practice session in Denver last year, Nix demonstrated his capabilities. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley recalled his impressions: “Had really good command for a young player in and out of the huddle, good presence about him, good leadership,” Hafley remembered. “It wasn’t big for him. He’s got a strong arm. He can make the throws. He’s good in the pocket. He can get out of the pocket.”
Hafley added, “What he’s shown this year in some big key moments is using his legs. He’s made some huge plays at the end of the game. I picture the one against Houston at the end of the game where he went for the big run [of 22 yards] to lead them to the win. Just a really good young quarterback who’s got a really bright future.”
While Nix’s future appears promising, Jordan Love is currently delivering at an elite level. He has thrown nine touchdowns with only one interception during the Packers’ current four-game winning streak. As an interesting note, the Broncos’ defense employs a significant amount of man coverage. Against man coverage, Love has excelled, ranking third among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks with a 115.3 passer rating. This includes impressive performances of 143.8 against Chicago last week and 119.2 during the Packers’ three-game sweep of the NFC North.
Strength vs. Strength: Third-Down Dominance
A crucial battle within the game will unfold every time the Green Bay Packers’ offense takes the field on third down. Offensively, the Packers lead the NFL with a remarkable 50.6% conversion rate on third downs. Conversely, the Denver Broncos’ defense is the league’s best at preventing conversions, allowing opponents to convert only 30.9% of the time.
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur commented on his team’s ability to stay in manageable situations on Friday: “I don’t know what the analytics say in regards to what our average third-down (distance is). I do feel like we’ve for the most part done a pretty decent job of staying in third-and-manageable situations.”
LaFleur’s assessment is accurate. The league average for third-down distance is 7.0 yards. The Packers’ offense faces the second-shortest third downs, averaging just 6.2 yards to gain. They have also run the third-most plays on third-and-4 or shorter.
In contrast, the Broncos’ defense has faced the longest third downs, with an average required distance of 7.7 yards. They have also encountered the second-most plays of third-and-8 or longer.
“Conversely,” LaFleur continued, “when you look at Denver, there is so many third-and-longs on tape. It’s crazy how many times people get behind the sticks vs. them. It’s a credit to the talent and the scheme. They do a good job of forcing you into those third-and-longs. I think that’s going to be one of the keys to the game is just trying to stay in front of the sticks a little bit.”
Packers quarterback Jordan Love is a standout performer in these critical situations, leading the NFL with 970 passing yards on third down and ranking second with 51 first downs. Denver’s formidable pass-rushing duo of Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper has combined for 10.5 sacks on third down, with Cooper tied for fourth (5.5 sacks) and Bonitto tied for seventh (5.0 sacks). The Broncos’ secondary also contributes significantly, with cornerback Riley Moss tied for first in the league with seven pass breakups and cornerback Patrick Surtain tied for sixth with five.
The game is shaping up to be a hard-fought contest in critical areas. Here’s a breakdown of the conversion rates:
- Packers offense on third down: First in the NFL at 50.6%.
- Broncos defense on third down: First in the NFL, allowing opponents to convert just 30.9%.
- Packers offense on fourth down: Third in the NFL at 70.6%.
- Broncos defense on fourth down: 14th in the NFL, allowing conversions 52.9% of the time.
- Packers offense in the red zone: Second in the NFL, converting 68.1% of the time.
- Broncos defense in the red zone: First in the NFL, allowing conversions only 40.0% of the time.
- Packers offense in goal-to-go situations: Second in the NFL, converting 95.2% of the time.
- Broncos defense in goal-to-go situations: First in the NFL, allowing conversions just 62.5% of the time.
Are the Broncos Overrated?
While the Denver Broncos share the best record in the NFL and are undoubtedly a talented team, their impressive win-loss record may be somewhat inflated by a relatively weak schedule. The Broncos’ strength of victory metric stands at .325, meaning their 11 wins have come against teams with a combined 46.5 wins. From this perspective, no team with a winning record has navigated a softer schedule. Crucially, only three of Denver’s 11 victories have been against opponents who currently possess a winning record.
Overall, the 13 teams the Broncos have faced this season have a combined .376 winning percentage, making their schedule the second-easiest in the league. While winning is paramount, it’s worth noting that the Broncos haven’t always dominated their opponents; in several instances, they have narrowly escaped with victories. Quarterback Bo Nix leads the NFL in fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives, underscoring their ability to snatch wins in the closing moments.
A prime example of this was their 33-32 victory over the Giants, where they mounted an astonishing 33-point comeback in the fourth quarter after trailing by 19 points. While the comeback itself was impressive, the fact that they needed to score 33 points in the final quarter – just one point shy of the NFL record for most points in a fourth quarter – to secure the win raises questions about their consistent dominance.
Defensive end Micah Parsons of the Dallas Cowboys, who will face the Broncos later in the season, commented on their performance: “We know it’s going to be a fourth-quarter game but, at the same time, we’re not the Giants and any other defense they faced this year, they ain’t have us,” Parsons said. “I don’t think they’ve played anybody like us outside of Houston. I’m excited to go see what we do against this team.” This sentiment suggests that some opponents believe the Broncos’ record may not fully reflect their true strength when facing elite competition.